The Trump administration’s openly hostile policies toward wind, solar, and

The Trump administration’s openly hostile policies toward wind, solar, and electric vehicles are setting the stage for much slower emissions reductions than previously expected, according to a new Rhodium Group report cited by OilPrice.com and published this week.

A sweeping change in US energy policy under President Donald Trump could more than halve the pace of decarbonization in America, research firm Rhodium Group said in its annual Taking Stock 2025 analysis, published this week.

“Openly hostile to wind, solar and electric vehicles ”

Solar and wind installations and the use of electric vehicles could suffer a sharp decline as subsidies expire earlier than planned and plans to repeal the so-called finding of danger. This finding, dating back to 2009, is the US federal government’s official conclusion that greenhouse gases harm public health and cause climate change. This finding has served as the legal basis for many U.S. laws and regulations aimed at limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

As part of the Trump administration’s rollback of climate laws and regulations, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin proposed reversing the 2009 hazard finding—a move hailed by Energy Secretary Chris Wright as “a monumental step toward returning to sensible policies that expand access to affordable, reliable, and secure energy and improve the quality of life for all Americans. ”

For the Trump administration, reliable and affordable energy means more fossil fuels and nuclear power generation at the expense of unreliable, weather-dependent, and (so far) heavily subsidized wind and solar power and electric vehicles.

“The first seven months of Trump’s second term and the 119th Congress have seen the most dramatic shift in energy and climate policy in years, ” the Rhodium Group report said.

“After the Biden administration enacted significant policies to promote decarbonization, Congress and the White House are now implementing a policy regime that is openly hostile to wind, solar, and electric vehicles and seeks to encourage increased production and use of fossil fuels. ”

The Cooling Effect in Solar and Wind Power

 In its annual forecast of future emissions under current policies, titled “Taking Stock, ” Rhodium Group found that the U.S. is on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26-41% by 2040 from 2005 levels. Emissions levels will fall by 26-35% by 2035, significantly lower than the forecast in the 2024 report, which showed a steeper decline of 38-56% by 2035 compared to 2005.

The high-emissions scenario, the most pessimistic of the three scenarios considered in the 2025 report, assumes that the pace of decarbonization in the U.S. will be more than halved by 2040, with average annual emissions reductions of only 0.4% from 2025 to 2040 compared to 1.1% from 2005 to 2024. In the medium and low emission scenarios, the pace of decarbonisation accelerates, with average annual reductions of 1.4% and 1.9% by 2040 respectively, representing accelerations of 22% and 70% compared to the pace over the past two decades.

“Despite the volume of policies developed by the executive branch, the largest climate and energy action was taken at the federal legislative level with the passage of the fiscal year 2025 budget reconciliation law, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, ” Rhodium Group said.

According to the research firm, the OBBBA is expected to reduce the construction of new clean energy capacity by 53-59% over the next decade.

Overall, the law puts more than half a trillion dollars in clean energy and transportation investments at risk, according to Rhodium Group estimates.

“It also places new economic pressure on existing facilities that produce clean energy technologies—associated with nearly $150 billion in investments—given the significantly reduced domestic demand for these products, ” the firm added.

The overall impact on clean energy in America could be even bigger, depending on how enforcement actions shape the law’s implementation, Rhodium Group said.

For the solar industry, the OBBBA will have limited short-term impact as developers rush to complete their projects to qualify for tax incentives through 2027, Wood Mackenzie said earlier this month. However, the long-term outlook has now worsened due to new permitting hurdles and penalties for reliance on Chinese solar panel manufacturers.

The latest third-quarter U.S. solar market report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie warns that the policies put the U.S. at risk of losing 44 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity by 2030, an 18% decline.

The report found that 77 percent of all solar power installed this year was in states won by President Trump, including eight of the top 10 states by number of new solar installations: Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky and Arkansas.

“Instead of unleashing this American economic engine, the Trump administration is deliberately stifling investment, which is driving up energy costs for families and businesses and threatening the reliability of our electric grid, ” said Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of SEIA.

“The continued uncertainty over federal policy action makes the business environment for the solar industry extremely challenging, ” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie.

Wind energy also faces significant headwinds.

While wind power installations surged in the first quarter of the year, total turbine orders for the first half of 2025 plunged 50% to their lowest level since 2020, according to a report by Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Energy Association (ACP) U.S. Wind Energy Monitor.

The ACP market report found that clean energy development in the U.S. has seen little growth, with solar installations down 23% in the first half of 2025 and power purchase agreements (PPAs) collapsing. These are “early indicators of attacks on federal policy and trade policy volatility that are undermining U.S. energy security and economic growth, ” the association said.

“The uncertainty created by new bureaucratic delays and unclear requirements is negatively impacting future energy projects, slowing growth just when our country needs more energy to power its growing economy, ” said Jason Grumet, CEO of ACP.